Modélisation des effectifs dans les secteurs de la santé et de l’éducation

This report provides an estimate of the changing workforce in the health and education sectors based on administrative data. Using data from Statistics Canada's Longitudinal Education-Labour Market Linkage Platform, we track the labour market for post-secondary graduates in teaching and nursing, two occupations that are currently experiencing recruitment challenges. We present figures on the number of graduates by year for cohorts graduating from 2010 to 2016, as well as their retention rate in the province of graduation. We also present median residency and income pathways. This report focuses on Quebec, but we also present figures for Ontario for comparison. Our results suggest that few Quebec graduates choose to move outside of the Belle Province: less than 5% of graduates since 2010 make this choice. Thus, our retention power is much greater than that of Ontario, which has a much higher attrition rate. Using data from the 2016 Canadian Census of Population, we also calculate retention in the profession by age. Our results suggest that retention in both nursing and education has been relatively stable for almost 25 years. Contrary to the media message, there does not appear to be any greater or lesser difficulty in retaining new faculty in the profession. It appears that there has always been some attrition rate of about 25%. Finally, we are also relaying figures on demographic projections from the Institut de la statistique du Québec. The figures provided in this report can be used as a basis for future simulation work. We conclude with a brief review of some of the initiatives used in other countries to increase enrolment in education.

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