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March 11, 2024

Scénarios de risque et prévisions macroéconomiques

Economic policy and central bank and government decisions are generally based on economic forecasts that represent “the best estimates of the future trajectory of economic variables of interest that analysts can make using available data.” Prudent management suggests taking into account the risks associated with forecasts. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk scenarios: a high oil price, a U.S. recession, a tight labor market and restrictive monetary policy. Our results show that these scenarios represent important risk factors for the evolution of the Canadian economy. In particular, the scenario of high oil prices is rather positive for the Canadian economy, while an American recession could lead us into a recession. A very tight labor market results in additional price increases, while the very restrictive monetary policy scenario is associated with a slight rise in the unemployment rate and a lower inflation rate.

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Immigrant de deuxième génération et citoyen de second ordre ?

Brahim Boudarbat and Idossou Marius Adom

Immigration and Labour Market
RP

Les salaires dans le secteur des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) : Éléments de comparaison entre le Canada et d’autres pays

Benoit Dostie, Genevieve Dufour and Sylvie St-Onge

Skills, Labour Market and Human Resources

Renoncer à la liberté : Comprendre les choix des détenus en matière de libération conditionnelle

Guy Lacroix and William Arbour

Skills and Inequality and Poverty
RJ