From Kyiv to Frankfurt? Ukraine’s monetary policy under war and integration Constraints

From Kyiv to Frankfurt? Ukraine’s monetary policy under war and integration Constraints

This paper examines whether the National Bank of Ukraine’s policy remained rule-like through institutional reform, external constraints, and war. Using monthly data for 2009–2026, we estimate dynamic open-economy Taylor-type rules with inflation, economic activity, exchange-rate, and regime-interaction terms. Policy-rate persistence is strong, while the estimated inflation response changes across regimes and is largest during the full-scale war. The largest rule deviations occur during the 2015 currency crisis, the initial 2022 policy-rate freeze, and the June 2022 tightening. Descriptive event accounting links these episodes to institutional and geopolitical constraints. The evidence is consistent with state-contingent adaptation rather than a wholesale suspension of rules, with implications for monetary credibility and Ukraine’s prospective European integration.

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