Inflation as a Strategic Response

In this paper, we examine the effect of increases in health care costs and general inflation on optimal insurance policies and waste in a model of imperfect information with costly auditing. We show that in such a setting, individuals will buy more than full insurance. Moreover, as the cost of medical increases, consumers (i.e., patients) reduce their probability of filing injustified claims, at the same time as insurance providers audit with lower probability. As a result, waste associated with costly auditing is reduced. We also show that a general increase in the opportunity cost of illness (reflected through lost wages due to illness) also decreases the likelihood of false claims, of auditing and thus of waste, but not as much as health care costs increase.
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