We analyze the mismatch between job seekers and vacant positions in Quebec. A mismatch can occur when job seekers are concentrated mainly in sectors of the labor market—such as certain industries—where the probability of finding employment is low. In some sectors of the labor market, the chances of finding a job may be limited because there are relatively few positions open from employers, or because it is difficult to align candidates’ skills with employers’ needs. Mismatch reduces the probability of finding a job and increases the unemployment rate.

In Quebec, the unemployment rate has recently begun to rise and reached 6.3% in June 2025. In such situations, when the labor market deteriorates, political discourse tends to focus on mismatch as one of the possible explanations. Our findings suggest that mismatch in Quebec increased from 2016 to 2025. However, this increase is small compared with the overall unemployment rate. A significant share of the rise in mismatch comes from the growing proportion of job vacancies in the health and social services sector, while the number of job seekers has not increased in a comparable way in this sector.