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Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area

In this article, we estimate the car trips generated by the arrival of autonomous vehicles (AV) in the Greater Montreal Area. Our research methodology is based on a simulation model which estimates new travel demand associated with AV by measuring differences in travel needs by age categories. Given the uncertainty regarding the evolution of critical variables such as future car occupancy rate, we evaluate different scenarios to assess a range of potential effects of VA on motorized travel. Thus, the results predict a 13% average increase in motorized trips based on overall results, and a 16% to 20% increase in trips based on a stable average vehicle occupancy rate in the coming years. Otherwise, the predicted increase in travel is between 2%, based on a 14% increase in occupancy, and 26%, based on a 5% decrease in occupancy. For each of the scenarios assessed in the analysis, we estimate the effects on external costs caused by automobile travel. According to our results, AV could reduce private and social costs by $ 5,059 billion in Quebec.

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