This paper proposes a framework to produce multi-horizon forecasts of business cycle turning points, average forecasts of economic activity as well as conditional forecasts that depend on whether the horizon of interest belongs to a recession episode or not. Our forecasting models take the form of an autoregression (AR) of order one that is augmented with either a probability of recession or an inverse Mills ratio. Our empirical results suggest that a static Probit model that uses only the TS as regressor provides comparable fit to the data as more sophisticated non-static Probit models. We also find that the dynamic patterns of the term structure of recession probabilities are quite informative about business cycle turning points. Our most parsimonious AAR model delivers better out-of-sample forecasts of GDP growth than the benchmark models considered. We construct term structures of recession probabilities since the last oficial NBER turning point. The results suggest that there has been no harbinger of a recession for the US economy since 2010Q4 and that there is none to fear at least until 2018Q1. GDP growth is expected to rise steadily between 2016Q3 and 2018Q1 in the range [2.5%,3.5%].

Voir le document

Dernières publications

2017MO-03 MO
Méthodes avancées d’évaluation d’investissements / Advanced Methods of Investment Evaluation - Tome 2
Marcel Boyer
Voir le document

2017MO-02 MO
Méthodes avancées d’évaluation d’investissements / Advanced Methods of Investment Evaluation - Tome 1
Marcel Boyer
Voir le document

2017s-08 CS
An experimental investigation of rating-market regulation
Claudia Keser, Asri Özgümüs, Emmanuel Peterlé et Martin Schmidt
Voir le document

2017s-07 CS
Statistical tests of the demand for insurance: an “all or nothing” decision
Anne Corcos, François Pannequin et Claude Montmarquette
Voir le document

2017RP-02 RP
Politiques favorables à l’innovation en santé
Nadia Benomar, Joanne Castonguay, Marie-Hélène Jobin et François Lespérance
Voir le document


Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations
1130 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, suite 1400
Montréal, Québec (Canada) H3A 2M8
(514) 985-4000
(514) 985-4039
reception@cirano.qc.ca

© 2017 CIRANO. Tous droits réservés.



Partenaire de :