We design a double-or-quits game to compare the speed of learning one’s specific ability with the speed of rising confidence as the task gets increasingly difficult. We find that people on average learn to be overconfident faster than they learn their true ability and we present a simple Bayesian model of confidence which integrates these facts. We show that limited discrimination of objective differences, myopia, and uncertainty about one’s true ability to perform a task in isolation can be responsible for large and robust confidence biases, namely the hard-easy effect, the Dunning-Kruger effect, conservative learning from experience and the overprecision phenomenon (without underprecision) if subjects act as Bayesian learners. Moreover, these biases are likely to persist since the Bayesian aggregation of past information consolidates the accumulation of errors and the perception of contrarian illusory signals generates conservatism and under-reaction to events. Taken together, these two features may explain why intuitive Bayesians make systematically wrong predictions of their own performance.

Voir le document

Dernières publications

2017s-08 CS
An experimental investigation of rating-market regulation
Claudia Keser, Asri Özgümüs, Emmanuel Peterlé et Martin Schmidt
Voir le document

2017s-07 CS
Statistical tests of the demand for insurance: an “all or nothing” decision
Anne Corcos, François Pannequin et Claude Montmarquette
Voir le document

2017RP-02 RP
Politiques favorables à l’innovation en santé
Nadia Benomar, Joanne Castonguay, Marie-Hélène Jobin et François Lespérance
Voir le document

2017RP-01 RP
Évaluation économique du service de premiers répondants sur le territoire de l’agglomération de Montréal
Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, François Vaillancourt, Ingrid Peignier, Brigitte Bouchard-Milord et Alain Vaillancourt
(document non-disponible)

2017MO-02 MO
Perception des risques - Baromètre Cirano 2017
Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin et Ingrid Peignier
Voir le document


Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations
1130 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, suite 1400
Montréal, Québec (Canada) H3A 2M8
(514) 985-4000
(514) 985-4039
reception@cirano.qc.ca

© 2017 CIRANO. Tous droits réservés.



Partenaire de :