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| More than 120 people gathered at CIRANO on Thursday, August 27, to mark Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin’s ten years at the helm of the organization. Partners, researchers, current and former members of the Board of Directors, government representatives, collaborators, colleagues, friends, and family members came together to pay tribute to her career and her contribution to CIRANO’s development. After ten years at the helm of CIRANO, Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin is passing the torch to Pierre-Carl Michaud, who became President and CEO of CIRANO on September 1, 2026. This transition marks a new chapter in the CIRANO’s history as the organization continues its mission to foster dialogue between the research community and decision-makers. |
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| | | | | | | | CIRANO announced its 2026–2027 research program, which this year includes 50 research projects across its 10 major research themes. This new year will also be guided by the theme “Navigating Economic Uncertainty: Forecasts, Resilience, and Public Policy,” which addresses key current issues for society and CIRANO’s partners. A wide range of activities will be organized around this theme throughout the year. |
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| | | Michael Smart (University of Toronto) is appointed Associate Researcher in the Economic and Fiscal Policies theme. Luca Mazzone (Université de Montréal) is appointed CIRANO Researcher in the Inequality and Poverty theme. René Morissette (Université du Québec en Outaouais) is appointed CIRANO Researcher in the Skills theme. Philippe d’Astous (HEC Montréal) is appointed CIRANO Researcher in the Economic Cycles and Financial Markets theme. Katalin Springel (HEC Montréal) is appointed CIRANO Researcher in the Sustainable Development and Agri-Food theme.
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| | | The GVCdtLab and CIRANO recently welcomed a delegation from France and Quebec bringing together representatives from the diplomatic, institutional, economic, and academic communities, including Jean-Pierre Raffarin, former French Prime Minister, and Jean-François Copé, former minister. Organized under the leadership of Thierry Warin (HEC Montréal and CIRANO) and Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin (Polytechnique Montréal and CIRANO), this meeting provided an opportunity to present the digital twin developed by the GVCdtLab, which combines artificial intelligence, economic modeling, and data science to better understand economic interdependencies and simulate different scenarios. Discussions also focused on the potential of these new technologies to inform the design and evaluation of public policies. |
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| | | | The CIRANO report “The Economic Costs Associated with Homelessness in Quebec”, authored by Eric Latimer (McGill and CIRANO), Karine Perreault (Douglas Research Center), Caleb Foster (McGill University), Alex Schurr (Douglas Research Center), Dimitra Panagiotoglou (McGill University), and Erin C. Strumpf (CIRANO Researcher and Fellow, McGill University), has received significant media attention since its publication. The study estimates the economic costs associated with homelessness in Quebec at $776 million per year, or approximately $77,600 per person. These findings were notably cited by La Presse and the Observatoire québécois des inégalités, helping to fuel discussions on the costs of homelessness and interventions that could improve the life trajectories of those affected, particularly “Housing First” approaches. |
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| | | | | | | | The Human Capital Research Group will hold its eighth conference on Friday, September 18, 2026, at the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). Several academic researchers in the social sciences will present their recent work. The research presented will be primarily empirical and microeconometric in nature, with particular attention to issues related to the identification of causal effects. The conference aims to foster discussion and exchange on the theme of the socioeconomic well-being of Indigenous peoples. |
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| | | This Festschrift workshop is organized in honour of Russell Davidson, an internationally renowned econometrician whose contributions to econometric theory, statistical inference, specification testing, and, in particular, bootstrap methods have been foundational and widely cited. His work has had a lasting influence on both the theory and practice of modern econometrics. |
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| | | CIRANO is pleased to welcome Serge Darolles, Professor of Finance at Université Paris-Dauphine, for a seminar examining the links between ESG profiles, short selling, and index membership. The presentation will also explore the impact of passive ESG demand on price formation and market efficiency. This event is organized by David Ardia, CIRANO Researcher and Full Professor at HEC Montréal, in collaboration with Quantact, HEC Montréal, and the GAIIA Lab. |
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| | | CIRANO is pleased to welcome Nathan Nunn, Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia and Canada Research Chair in cultural economics for the conference : Cultural Evolution and the Potential for Global Mismatch.This event is organized by Erin C. Strumpf, CIRANO Researcher and Fellow, and Full Professor, Department of Economics and Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University. |
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| | | This workshop is intended for researchers and doctoral students in economics who are interested in resource and environmental economics. The workshop will feature Thor Larson, a doctoral student at the University of California, and Yukihiro Nishimura of Osaka University. |
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| | | | | In recent decades, rural Canada has faced significant demographic challenges, particularly in the aging and decline of its population. These demographic trends are leading to social, economic and political changes within these communities. Regardless of the cause, a decline in a community’s population will invariably bring about budgetary consequences. The tax base, i.e., the number of its taxpayers, decreases, which reduces the community’s ability to fund its fixed costs and maintain its infrastructure. (…) |
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| | | | The Act to Promote Workforce Skills Development and Recognition, also known as the 1% Act or the Skills Act, has been in existence for over 30 years. The Act, passed in 1995, currently requires employers with a total payroll exceeding $2 million to allocate at least one per cent of those funds to training. Its goal, broadly, is to improve the skills and qualifications of the workforce. |
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| | | | | | | | Jean-Philippe Meloche, François Vaillancourt, Brigitte Milord |
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| Under the rules for setting tax rates applicable to different categories of property, non-residential properties may be taxed at a higher rate than that applicable to residential properties. Many existing studies suggest that high rates on non-residential properties are both unjustified and detrimental to local economic development. This report examines the practice of taxing different classes of property at different rates among Canadian municipalities using financial data from 171 Canadian municipalities with populations of 25,000 or more. (…) |
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| | | Mehdi Ammi, Erin C. Strumpf |
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| The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare systems and reduced access to healthcare and preventive services. However, it remains unclear whether certain groups were disproportionately affected. This study examines these issues with a focus on equity groups: women, visible minorities, Indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, sexual minorities, immigrants, and individuals who did not complete secondary education. (…) |
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| | | Bernard Korai, Sophie Bernard, Marc Journeault, Mathias Glaus |
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| This report is a literature review of eco-responsibility and eco-conditionality instruments at the scale of Quebec, Canada, as well as several countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Union, and a few emerging economies. In general, the heterogeneous use of these concepts has been observed, particularly in the Canadian provinces and, to a lesser extent, in Quebec. The concept of eco-conditionality, although rarely present in the literature, appears more frequently in Quebec, particularly in the agricultural sector, where it was first applied. Otherwise, eco-responsibility instruments are more widespread, especially those related to environmental criteria. (…) |
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| | | Jean Dubé, Francesco Ciari, Sara Gharavi, Rakibul Hassan, Hamed Naseri |
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| Although remote working is not a new phenomenon and was already well established before the pandemic struck, its use has grown exponentially since 2020. In theory, working from home should lead to a decrease in the use of transportation infrastructure and, consequently, a reduction in pollutant emissions. However, research has shown that travel patterns change when workers choose to work from home or remotely. Thus, while the number of commutes may decrease, other trips may be added to the new daily routine. This substitution has potential implications for transportation demand and its environmental consequences. |
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| | | François Vaillancourt, Brahim Boudarbat |
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| This report quantifies the impact of advanced mathematical knowledge on Quebec’s economic activity. Similar analyses have previously been conducted for other economies (Australia, Brazil, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom). Advanced mathematical skills encompass knowledge applicable to engineering (physical or financial), forecasting (climatic or economic), and impact assessment (public policy or medical treatment). |
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| | | Christian Belzil, Jörgen Hansen |
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| Using longitudinal data from the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS), designed by Statistics Canada in conjunction with the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), we examine the ability of PISA test scores to predict subsequent educational and labor market success. Overall, our results indicate that performance on both components of the PISA assessment is much more predictive of success in the labor market than of academic success or the probability of obtaining a degree in a scientific field. |
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| | | Christian Belzil, Jörgen Hansen |
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| This report analyzes the alignment between education and employment among university graduates in Quebec. In a context where a growing proportion of the population is accessing higher education, it becomes essential to ensure that this investment in education translates into professional integration that reflects the skills acquired. The analysis is based on microdata from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the National Graduates Survey (NGS), used to examine the rate of skilled employment among these graduates. |
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| | | | Nicholas-James Clavet, Pierre-Carl Michaud, Julien Navaux |
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| We analyze the optimal provision and insurance of long-term care in a context where preferences and risks vary across individuals. We combine a survey experiment conducted with 3,002 people aged 55 to 69 in Quebec with Quebec administrative data on care needs profiles, service provision, and health transitions. Our results suggest that an optimal scheme would reduce co-insurance for institutional care, increase it for home care, and lead to a constrained expansion of home care services. (...) |
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| | | Philippe d’Astous, Iwan Meier, Pierre-Carl Michaud |
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| We analyze whether households’ investment decisions in ESG assets can be explained by their preferences for sustainability or by their beliefs about future returns. To address this question, we develop a structural discrete-choice model with heterogeneous beliefs and preferences. Using a large-scale survey with randomized mutual fund allocation scenarios and elicited return expectations, we recover individual-level willingness to pay for sustainability (and financial risk). (...) |
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| | | Arnold Michel Koyou, Ousmane Z. Traoré, Maurice Doyon |
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| This study investigates the consumer-citizen duality in willingness to pay (WTP) for improved animal welfare in the Canadian dairy sector. The study examines whether individuals express different preferences when acting as consumers in a private market setting versus citizens in a collective decision-making context. Using an experimental survey focused on milk produced under the “Certified Humane” standard, two treatments were compared: a public scenario, where the standard would be mandatory for all dairy producers, and a private scenario, where adoption would be voluntary and reflected through market choices. (…) |
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| | | Marine Carrasco, Cheikh Nokho |
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| This paper proposes methods to estimate and compare asset pricing models in settings with a large number of test assets. Models are specified through a linear stochastic discount factor (SDF). We propose two regularization schemes to extend the Hansen-Jagannathan distance to high-dimensional environments. In addition to stabilizing the inversion of the covariance matrix, the proposed regularizations admit an economic interpretation as relaxing the exact pricing restrictions, thereby accommodating market frictions. (…) |
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| | | Jean-Marie Dufour, Abderrahim Taamouti, Meilin Tong |
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| We provide pairwise-difference (Gini-type) representations of higher-order central moments for both general random variables and empirical moments. Such representations do not require a measure of location. For third and fourth moments, this yields pairwise difference representations of skewness and kurtosis coefficients. We show that all central moments possess such representations, so no reference to the mean is needed for moments of any order. This is done by considering i.i.d. replications of the random variables considered (…) |
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| | | Jean-Marie Dufour, Mame Astou Diouf |
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| We study from a finite-sample viewpoint the problem of building tests and simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), continuous or discrete. We emphasize procedures based on reweighted empirical distribution function (EDF) with shrinking bandwidths in the tails of the distribution. Since weighted statistics may have a problematic behavior when scaling factors are small (or zero), we propose to use regularized statistics. We consider a wide class set of modified EDF-type statistics, and give general characterizations of their distributions in the case of i.i.d. observations, so that the relevant distributions can be simulated in finite samples. (…) |
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| | | Jean-Marie Dufour, Tianyu He |
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| This paper proposes asymptotically distribution-free inference methods for comparing estimators which admit asymptotically linear Gaussian functional representations across dependent samples. The framework applies to a broad range of welfare indices used in inequality, poverty, and risk analysis. Two distinct situations are considered. First, we propose asymptotic and bootstrap in- tersection methods which are valid under arbitrary dependence between two samples. Second, we focus on the common case of overlapping samples—a special form of dependent samples where sample dependence arises solely from matched pairs—and provide asymptotic and bootstrap meth- ods for comparing indices. (…) |
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| | | CIRANO news on our social networks |
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Corporate Partners
Autorité des marchés financiers Banque de développement du Canada Banque du Canada Banque Nationale du Canada Bell Canada BMO Groupe financier Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec La Caisse Énergir Hydro-Québec Intact Corporation Financière Mouvement Desjardins Power Corporation du Canada Pratt & Whitney Canada VIA Rail Canada |
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Governmental partners
Ministère des Finances du Québec Ministère de l'Économie, de l'Innovation et de l’Énergie Innovation, Sciences et Développement Économique Canada Ville de Montréal |
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University Partners
École de technologie supérieure École nationale d’administration publique de Montréal HEC Montréal Institut national de la recherche scientifique Polytechnique Montréal Université Concordia Université de Montréal Université de Sherbrooke Université du Québec Université du Québec à Montréal Université Laval Université McGill |
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