that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements
accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s.
Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact
of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and consistent with the muted impact
oil-price changes had on macroeconomic outcomes during the early 2000s and
again over the past two years. The Spring 2008 increase in oil prices had a larger
impact because market participants considered that it was likely driven by permanent