that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements
accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s.
Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact
of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and consistent with the muted impact
oil-price changes had on macroeconomic outcomes during the early 2000s and
again over the past two years. The Spring 2008 increase in oil prices had a larger
impact because market participants considered that it was likely driven by permanent
2017MO-01MO Le Québec économique 6 : Le défi des infrastructures Marcelin Joanis, Andrés Ardila, Josée Beaudoin, Laurent-David Beaulieu, Dorothée Boccanfuso, Bernard Boire, Stéphanie Boulenger, Jean-Philippe Charron, Jean-Claude Cloutier, Bernard Dafflon, Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, Clélia Desmettre, Kodjovi M. Eklou, Étienne Farvaque, Mario Fortin, Richard Gagné, Roger Galipeau, Stéphanie Lapierre, Geneviève Lefebvre, Jean-Philippe Meloche, Mathieu Paquet, Ingrid Peignier, Serge Pourreaux, Diane Riopel, Luc Savard, Alexandre Skerlj et François Vaillancourt Voir le document