When the labour market deteriorates and unemployment rises, political discourse tends to focus on the mismatch between job seekers and vacancies. A mismatch can arise when job seekers are predominantly concentrated in sectors where the chances of finding employment are limited. This can result from the small number of available positions in these sectors or because these sectors face high obstacles in matching candidates’ skills with employers’ needs.

In this study, the authors analyze the mismatch between job seekers and the vacancies in Quebec from 2016 to 2024, using data from Statistics Canada surveys. They conclude that the increase in the mismatch between job seekers and job openings during this period is small compared to the overall unemployment rate. A significant share of the rise in mismatch comes from the growing proportion of job vacancies in the health and social assistance sector without a corresponding increase in job seekers. Conversely, the wholesale and retail trade sector saw a decline in the number of new openings while the number of job seekers in these sectors did not decline.