Cross-Border Producer Price Transmission in North American Manufacturing: Evidence from Canada–United States Industry Networks
This study investigates the extent and mechanisms of producer price connectedness between Canadian and U.S. manufacturing sectors, with a focus on cross-border interdependencies and the impact of tariff-related shocks. Leveraging monthly Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) data for 21 harmonized NAICS industries from 2004 to 2025, and incorporating exchange rate dynamics, we apply a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with Elastic Net regularization to capture the structure of price transmission. Using the Diebold and Yılmaz (2012) framework, we compute static and dynamic measures of connectedness. Our findings reveal a high degree of cross-border price transmission, with Canadian industries—especially Transportation Equipment, Machinery, and Computer & Electronics—playing central roles in both influencing and absorbing price shocks. U.S. sectors such as PetroCoal andWood also exhibit strong bilateral ties with their Canadian counterparts. The results underscore the importance of production linkages and trade integration in shaping inflation dynamics in North America, offering key insights for policymakers aiming to balance trade policy and economic resilience.