Drawing on Montmarquette, Voennot-Brio and Dagenais (2007), we consider a model of school dropout where students differ in terms of their motivations and expectations of the consequences of continuing their studies and obtaining a diploma.

We will analyze a multinomial choice situation where we identify four types of dropout versus continuation decisions.  We use data from the SWTS survey (2013) which provides information on the transition from school to work in Tunisia.

We show that the main determinant of school failure is belonging to a poor region, with the risk increasing if the student shows a lack of interest in studies or suffers from the mother's low education and inactivity. If these three conditions are met, the likelihood of leaving school to marry at an early age and accepting a job below one's ambitions increases, as students feel that access to school is no longer an obvious factor for upward mobility. The inconsistency between the objectives of the school system and those of the job market accentuates students' pessimism and encourages them to leave school without a diploma or qualification.