Mohamed Ayadi, Professor at the Institut Supérieur de Gestion (ISG), University of Tunis and Director of SEPAL (Economic and Social Policy Analysis Laboratory) presented the paper «Heterogeneity of the Reasons for Dropping Out of School: The Impact of Anticipations, Opportunities and Cognitive Capacities of Pupils in Tunisia», co-written with Claude Montmarquette, on May 19, 2022 at CIRANO. This event, co-organized with the Observatoire de la Francophonie économique, was a tribute to Claude Montmarquette, professor emeritus at the Université de Montréal, one of the founders and also a researcher and Fellow of CIRANO.

Drawing on Claude Montmarquette, Voennot-Brio and Dagenais (2007), the researchers consider a dropout model in which students differ in terms of their motivations and their expectations of the consequences of staying in school and obtaining a diploma.

They analyze a multinomial choice situation where they identify four types of dropout versus continuation decisions.  The researchers use data from the SWTS survey (2013) which provides information on the transition from school to work in Tunisia.

They show that the main determinant of school failure is belonging to a poor region, with the risk increasing if the student shows a lack of interest in studies or suffers from the mother's poor education and inactivity. If these three conditions are met, the likelihood of leaving school to marry at an early age and accepting a job below one's ambitions increases, as students feel that access to school is no longer an obvious factor for upward mobility. The inconsistency between the objectives of the school system and those of the job market accentuates students' pessimism and encourages them to leave school without a diploma or qualification.