This paper analyzes the impact of a recent recommendation made by Quebec's Comité consultatif de lutte contre la pauvreté et l'exclusion sociale to guarantee every individual an income equal to 80% of Statistics Canada's Market Basket Measure (MBM). Workers with earnings at least equivalent to 16 weekly hours at the minimum wage would be entitled to 100% of the MBM. We also investigate the impact of three alternative proposals: 1) a change in the above the hours cut-off from 16 to 30 hours; 2) a guaranteed income equal to 100% of the MBM, irrespective of earnings; 3) a 3$/hour conditional wage subsidy. To do this, we first estimate a structural labor supply model using the existing tax code and predict the labor supply of a representative sample of individuals based upon the parameter estimates of the model. Simulations show that the original recommendation would have strong negative impacts on participation rates of low-earners and that its cost would exceed $ 2 billion. Increasing the hours cut-off is predicted to have little impact beyond those of the original recommendation. Providing a guaranteed income equivalent to 100% of the MBM, on the other hand, would have a large impact. We find that contrary to what is usually assumed, guaranteed income schemes may increase the incidence of low-income rather than decrease it.

Voir le document

Dernières publications

2017RP-03 RP
La surqualification professionnelle chez les diplômés des collèges et des universités : État de la situation au Québec
Brahim Boudarbat et Claude Montmarquette
Voir le document

2017s-11 CS
The social cost of contestable benefits
Arye Hillman et Ngo Van Long
Voir le document

2017s-09 CS
Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC
Dean Croushore et Simon van Norden
Voir le document

2017MO-04 MO
Méthodes avancées d’évaluation d’investissements / Advanced Methods of Investment Evaluation - Tome 2
Marcel Boyer
Voir le document

2017MO-03 MO
Méthodes avancées d’évaluation d’investissements / Advanced Methods of Investment Evaluation - Tome 1
Marcel Boyer
Voir le document


Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations
1130 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, suite 1400
Montréal, Québec (Canada) H3A 2M8
(514) 985-4000
(514) 985-4039
reception@cirano.qc.ca

© 2017 CIRANO. Tous droits réservés.



Partenaire de :