Confidence Regions for Calibrated Parameters in Computable General Equilibrium Models

We consider the problem of assessing the uncertainty of calibrated parameters in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models through the construction of confidence sets (or intervals) for these parameters. We study two different setups under which this can be done. The first one extends earlier work from Abdelkhalek and Dufour (1998) and is based on a projection technique which allows the construction of confidence sets for calibrated parameters from confidence sets on the free parameters of a (deterministc) CGE model. We discuss in detail how this approach can be applied to CES (Armington-type) function parameters frequently used in CGE models and illustrate it on models of the Moroccan economy. The second method allows one to extend the usual deterministic specification of CGE models by adding stochastic disturbances to the equations of the model and then to construct corresponding confidence sets for calibrated parameters using simulation techniques. This method uses the classical concept of a pivotal function for a parameter. We discuss in detail how this method can be applied to the calibrated parameters of a Cobb-Douglas production function.
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